Sandy Creek Park
This week's targets
Species historically present around now (Aug 31 – Sep 20), ranked by how reliably they turn up. “NEW” means not yet recorded this year.
4
Not yet seen this year
but expected this week
34
Very likely
> 20% detection
54
Plausible this week
Top targets — expected but not yet seen this year
| Species | Detection | Years seen | Last recorded |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chestnut-sided Warbler | 11% | 4 | September 18, 2025 |
| Cape May Warbler | 10% | 3 | September 20, 2025 |
| Common Nighthawk | 5% | 3 | August 31, 2020 |
| Tennessee Warbler | 5% | 3 | September 15, 2025 |
Everything expected this week
by detection likelihood
Very likely 34 species
| Species | Detection | Years seen | Records |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Cardinal | 58% | 12 | 146 |
| Carolina Wren | 57% | 12 | 144 |
| Carolina Chickadee | 56% | 12 | 141 |
| Red-bellied Woodpecker | 55% | 12 | 139 |
| Downy Woodpecker | 51% | 12 | 128 |
| American Crow | 50% | 12 | 127 |
| Tufted Titmouse | 50% | 12 | 127 |
| American Goldfinch | 49% | 12 | 124 |
| Eastern Bluebird | 48% | 12 | 121 |
| Blue Jay | 44% | 12 | 112 |
| Ruby-throated Hummingbird | 44% | 12 | 110 |
| Red-shouldered Hawk | 43% | 12 | 109 |
| House Finch | 43% | 12 | 108 |
| Red-headed Woodpecker | 41% | 9 | 77 |
| Great Blue Heron | 40% | 11 | 93 |
| Eastern Phoebe | 39% | 12 | 98 |
| White-breasted Nuthatch | 39% | 12 | 98 |
| Gray Catbird | 38% | 12 | 97 |
| Brown-headed Nuthatch | 37% | 12 | 94 |
| White-eyed Vireo | 37% | 12 | 92 |
| Turkey Vulture | 33% | 12 | 84 |
| Brown Thrasher | 32% | 12 | 80 |
| Blue-gray Gnatcatcher | 31% | 12 | 78 |
| European Starling | 29% | 11 | 67 |
| Belted Kingfisher | 29% | 12 | 73 |
| Wood Duck | 27% | 10 | 57 |
| Northern Mockingbird | 27% | 12 | 67 |
| Mourning Dove | 26% | 12 | 65 |
| Northern Flicker | 26% | 12 | 65 |
| Pileated Woodpecker | 25% | 12 | 64 |
| Great Egret | 25% | 8 | 42 |
| Eastern Wood-Pewee | 24% | 11 | 56 |
| Mallard | 24% | 8 | 40 |
| Red-eyed Vireo | 21% | 12 | 54 |
Likely 12 species
| Species | Detection | Years seen | Records |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Redstart | 20% | 11 | 46 |
| Black Vulture | 20% | 11 | 46 |
| Chimney Swift | 20% | 11 | 46 |
| American Robin | 19% | 12 | 49 |
| Eastern Towhee | 19% | 12 | 49 |
| Hairy Woodpecker | 19% | 12 | 48 |
| Song Sparrow | 19% | 11 | 43 |
| Common Yellowthroat | 19% | 10 | 39 |
| Pine Warbler | 18% | 12 | 45 |
| Barred Owl | 16% | 8 | 27 |
| Green Heron | 16% | 6 | 20 |
| Summer Tanager | 16% | 11 | 36 |
Possible 8 species
| Species | Detection | Years seen | Records |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eastern Kingbird | 14% | 4 | 12 |
| Canada Goose | 14% | 11 | 32 |
| Great Crested Flycatcher | 13% | 12 | 34 |
| Killdeer | 12% | 6 | 15 |
| Common Grackle | 12% | 9 | 22 |
| Acadian Flycatcher | 11% | 8 | 19 |
| Chestnut-sided Warbler NEW | 11% | 4 | 9 |
| Northern Parula | 10% | 10 | 22 |